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Brit living in Belgium and earning an income from building interfaces. Interestes include science, science fiction, technology, and European news and politics
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Is Starmer’s reluctance to criticise Trump smart tactics – or the sign of a man without a plan? | Rafael Behr by Rafael Behr
Wednesday January 7th, 2026 at 10:30 AM

The Guardian
1 Comment

The PM won’t call out Trump over Venezuela, and won’t commit to Europe. His refusal to choose leaves vital choices for Britain to be made by others

For an inveterate liar, Donald Trump is remarkably honest. The best guide to what he thinks is what he says. When forecasting his likely course of action, start with his declared intentions – removing the president of Venezuela, for example – and assume he means it. When he says the US must take possession of Greenland, he is not kidding.

The motives are sometimes muddled but rarely hidden. Trump likes making deals, especially real estate deals, and money. He wants to be great and to have his greatness affirmed with praise and prizes. He craves spectacle. The world as he describes it doesn’t always resemble observable reality, but there is an effortless, sociopathic sincerity to his falsehoods. The truth is whatever he intuits it to be in the moment to advance his interests and manipulate his audience.

Rafael Behr is a Guardian columnist

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PaulPritchard
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"Starmer’s determination never to choose amounts to acceptance that vital choices for Britain will be made by others."
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More than words by Chris Dillow
Wednesday January 7th, 2026 at 8:25 AM

Chris Dillow
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Everybody knows that there is much wrong with our politics. Voters have irrational or ill-informed preferences; politicians are selected for particular mindsets; the media systematically mislead not only voters but also politicians; and of course the power of capital constrains many intelligent policies.

As if all this were not enough, I’d like to add a further problem. (No, I’ve never worried about overdetermination). It’s that we have a mistaken paradigm of what a politician should be.

Societies have for centuries had various such paradigms. Often, it has been a “strong man”, such as a military leader, who can get things done. In 19th century England it was the gentleman amateur, who could leisurely administer an Empire with his degree in greats. In the mid-20th century it was an engineer, pulling levers to control the economy or society as if it were a hydraulic system. Or it was a technocratic manager supposedly free of ideology, the skills of business management being thought transferable from companies to unversities, churches or government.

In recent years, though, a new character has joined this dramatis personae - that of politician as newspaper columnist. We expect our rulers to communicate well and to win debates, an image reinforced by the myth that Churchill won the war by virtue of his inspiring speeches, and by the influence of the Oxford Union.

Of course, few people explicitly say that politicians should be like newspaper columnists. But culture is what we don’t notice, what we take for granted. It’s unspoken assumptions that are often the significant - and dangerous - ones.

The embodiment of this paradigm was of course Johnson, a columnist who blundered into government. But we still see it almost every day when various government ministers do the round of morning TV and radio shows where they are expected to speak on issues outside of their departmental remit, such as when Home Office or Health ministers are asked to speak about foreign affairs - as if they should be general-purpose opinion-mongers rather than people who must drive policy changes through government departments. It is to Wes Streeting’s great credit that he told Sophy Ridge “I’m not here to be a commentator”; he showed signs of appreciating that politicians ahould not be columnists.

Truss, however, was not so acute. “We must cut taxes” is a suitable newspaper column. But governing requires more. It requires you to answer the question: how can you cut taxes when bond markets are worrying about inflation and when there’s not much obvious public spending to be cut?

In dodging the difficult question Truss was acting like a Brexiteer. “Leave the EU” is a column. But what type of Brexit should we have? Can we get it through parliament? What is the economic cost of doing so? Is the cost worth paying, and if so why? These are questions for proper politics.

Which draws our attention to why the columnist is a bad, or at least incomplete, model for proper politics. The columnist can avoid the tricky questions and give glib answers. The serious politician, however, cannot. He or she has to say: “there are no easy answers, and whatever you want will come at a cost”. That they so rarely say this is, of course, a sign of how they have internalized the politician-as-columnist paradigm.

Not least of these questions is how to actually implement policy. Doing so requires grunt work of grinding through the detail, getting stakeholders onside and ensuring that bureaucrats know what to do. Columnists can rant glibly about bureaucrats, but adult politicians must work with and through them, just as CEOs must work through middle managers. If a politician is moaning about the “blob” or the “deep state” it is because he or she has failed in the basic sense of not even understanding what one’s job is.

The columnist paradigm misleads us in other ways. His or her only tool is words. And just as the man who only has a hammer thinks everything is a nail, so the columnist overvalues words.

One way in which this misleads us is that we expect words to convey some truth. But sometimes they cannot, because politicians cannot conduct negotiations in public.

Years ago, when asked about one of his players committing a foul, Arsene Wenger often replied “I did not see the incident”. Of course, he lied. What he meant was: “I’m not going to criticise my player in public.” Journalists pretended not to see this. Perhaps people are making a similar error in criticizing Starmer’s meek reaction to Trump’s attack on Venzuela. His refusal to condemn this might (and certainly should) be the equivalent of Wenger’s not seeing the incident - a reluctance to get into a public conflict which would risk even higher tariffs and damage to the economy.

Over-valuing words has another distorting effect. It fails to see that politicians don’t necessarily achieve their big aims by sweet reason. They have other ways of doing so - by mobilizing or creating some interests and bypassing or facing down others.

Insofar as Thatcher was a success, it was not because of her powers of rhetorical persuasion; if this were so, her epigones would not now be supporting trade barriers and the repression of free speech. Instead, her skill was to defeat trades unions, not least by carefully selecting when to fight them; to mobilize a constituency of “garagistes”, small businessmen who supported her against traditional Tory “wets”; and even to create a new client group, of people who had recently bought their own homes.

In the same spirit, perhaps the most lasting achievement of the Blair government was that in expanding universities it enlarged the number of liberal metropolitans, whilst one of its great failures was to alienate an erstwhile client group: public sector unions who became cheesed off with its top-down managerialism.

From this point of view, the Starmer government is an abject failure. It has demobilized potential allies - liberal cosmopolitans angered by its attitudes to immigration and pro-Gaza protests; or workers in HE and other creative industries - whilst not mobilizing or creating any new client groups.

Politics is about interests, not just words.

Insofar as words do matter, though, columnists mislead politicians in another way. For them, words mainly go only outwards: yes, some like John Harris occasionally talk to people, but when they do you can see the selection bias from outer space. But a big problem in politics now is communication in the other direction: how do politicians know what people are feeling? And (a different and maybe more important thing) what is ground truth?

Politicians could never rely upon their constituents to tell them this; the sort who write to MPs are a self-selecting selecting bunch of cranks. Nor can they rely now upon newspapers, which are increasingly propaganda rags telling a dwindling and ageing readership what it wants to hear. And of course, X doesn’t tell them, as knowledgable and civilized minds have mostly left the platform. Which leaves the questions: how is government to know ground truth? What accurate and unbiased sources of information could it have? These are issues which government-as-columnist neglects.

There’s one final way in which the columnist distorts politics. He or she often blurs the line between the personal and the political. For a good politician, though, the correct answer to many problems is simply: “that’s not government business”. As an individual you might be interested in what some people have in their trousers or in who plays at Glastonbury. But it’s no business of government. Failing to see that the personal is not always the political leads to tyranny.

The presumption that there should be similarities between politicians and columnists is therefore misleading in several ways, giving us a mistaken impression of what politics is and what politicians should do. Ths isn’t the only reason why we have been so atrociously governed in recent years, but it is one - and an overlooked one.

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The United States is a gangster state at home and a rogue state abroad by David Allen Green
Sunday January 4th, 2026 at 3:53 AM

The Law and Policy Blog
1 Comment

 

3rd January 2026

How this is ultimately the fault of Congress

and the Supreme Court

*
For some time there has not been a great deal of point offering constitutional commentary about the United States – though this blog tries from time to time.

This is because constitutional commentary usually requires there to be a settled body of rules and principles to which one may point when examining various political actions and inactions.

But in the United States such an exercise is futile: there are no settled body of rules and principles to which one can point to when examining various political actions and inactions.

Sometimes President Donald Trump and his cronies get away with something, and sometimes they do not. But there seems little rhyme nor reason, even at an abstract level, as to when and why they get their way and when and why they do not.

From an outside perspective, the United States seems akin to a gangster state at home – and (as emphasised by the overnight news about Venezuela) a rogue state abroad.

But in one sense Trump is not ultimately to blame, for there are always potential Trumps in every age and in every place. Knaves and charlatans are not novelties, nor are illiberals and their cruelty.

What usually happens, however, is that the potential Trumps are either kept out of power or restrained when in power by gatekeepers who, in turn, enforce constitutional arrangements and provide checks and balances.

And so what the real cause of the current horrors is the abdication by the United States Congress and Supreme Court of their proper constitutional functions.

Indeed there is a case for all this – all of it – being mere footnotes to the irresponsible failure of the Senate to convict Trump on indictment after the attempted January 6 insurrection. For once he could get away with that, he knew he could get away with anything – and those around him knew they also could get away with anything while Trump was President.

There is no easy way out of this now for the United States – other than a waiting game for elections to come round, which may nor may not make any difference.

So as a new year begins, the United States polity will remain in its darkest days for some time to come. And those days may even get darker.

***

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Comments are welcome, but they are pre-moderated and comments will not be published if irksome, or if they risk derailing the discussion.

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"And so what the real cause of the current horrors is the abdication by the United States Congress and Supreme Court of their proper constitutional functions."
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The Rime of the Ancient Maintainer by JA Westenberg
Wednesday December 31st, 2025 at 8:13 AM

Westenberg.
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The Rime of the Ancient Maintainer

Every culture produces heroes that reflect its deepest anxieties. The Greeks, terrified of both mortality and immortality, gave us Achilles. The Victorians, haunted by social mobility, gave us the self-made industrialist. And Silicon Valley, drunk on exponential curves and both terrified and entranced by endless funding rounds, has given us the Hero Developer: a figure who ships features at midnight, who “moves fast and breaks things,” who transforms whiteboard scribbles into billion-dollar unicorns through sheer caffeinated will.

We celebrate this person constantly. They're on the front page of TechCrunch et al. They keynote conferences. Their GitHub contributions get screenshotted and shared like saintly relics.

Meanwhile, an unsung developer is updating dependencies, patching security vulnerabilities, and refactoring code that the Hero Developer wrote three years ago before moving on to their next "zero to one" opportunity.

They will never be profiled in Wired.

But they're doing something far more important than innovation.

They're preventing collapse.

The Reality of All Systems

The second law of thermodynamics states that entropy in a closed system tends to increase over time. Your codebase is not exempt from this law. Neither is your body, your marriage, your democracy, or your kitchen. Everything falls apart. Everything degrades. The universe trends toward disorder with the patient inevitability of continental drift, and the only thing standing between any functional system and chaos is the inglorious, repetitive, thankless work of maintenance.

This should be obvious.

And yet.

We've constructed an entire economic and cultural apparatus dedicated to pretending it isn't true. We have "growth hackers" but no "stability hackers." We have "disruptors" but no "preservers." The entire vocabulary of modern business is oriented toward the new, the unprecedented, the revolutionary. What we lack is language for the equally difficult work of keeping existing things from falling apart.

Debt accrues interest. Ignored long enough, it compounds into bankruptcy. A startup can ship fast and break things for a time, but eventually someone has to pay the bill. Usually it's the maintainers, the ones who arrive after the Hero Developers have departed for greener pastures, the ones left to untangle spaghetti code and wonder why anyone thought it was a good idea to store user passwords in plaintext.

The Lindy Effect

Nassim Taleb popularized the Lindy Effect: the observation that for non-perishable things, every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy. A book that has been in print for a hundred years will probably be in print for another hundred. A technology that has worked for decades is, by virtue of having survived, more robust than the shiny new thing that hasn't been stress-tested by time.

The forty-year-old COBOL system running bank transactions has survived countless technological upheavals, it has survived the internet, and it has survived DOGE. It works. The sexy new microservices architecture might work, or it might introduce seventeen novel failure modes that nobody anticipated because nobody had encountered them before.

But maintainers of legacy systems are treated as janitors rather than guardians.

We act as if working on old code is a punishment, a career dead-end, when in fact it may be the most consequential work in the entire organization. When the flashy new system fails, everyone notices. When the old system keeps running, nobody does. Invisibility is the maintainer's reward for competence.

Re: Personal Parallels

The same dynamics that create technical debt in software create what we might call "life debt" in those of us who are counted among the mortals. You can sprint on your health for a while, you can neglect your relationships, defer that doctor's appointment, skip the gym, eat garbage, and run on cortisol and ambition. And for a while, nothing bad happens. The system keeps running. You might even convince yourself that you've hacked human biology, that the rules don't apply to you.

They apply to you.

The body accumulates damage. Relationships atrophy without tending, and mental health degrades under sustained neglect. And just like technical debt, life debt accrues interest. The workout you skipped at forty becomes the cardiac event at fifty, the difficult conversation you avoided at twenty-five becomes the divorce you didn't see coming at thirty. Entropy always wins; the only variable is how long you can hold it off and what tools you use to do so.

The Hero Developer mythology maps onto our lives. We celebrate the startup founder grinding hundred-hour weeks, the hustler who sacrifices everything for the mission, the "winner" who achieves escape velocity from ordinary human limitations. We don't run magazine profiles on the person who exercises consistently, maintains their friendships, sleeps eight hours, and builds nothing more remarkable than a sustainable existence. 

But sustainability is remarkable. 

It's actually quite difficult. 

Ask anyone who's tried.

A Modest Hope for Maintenance Culture

Imagine a culture that celebrated the twenty-year veteran who has kept the same system running through three major platform transitions over the new hire who wants to rewrite it in Rust. Imagine performance reviews that weighted "prevented disasters" as heavily as "shipped features." Imagine founders who bragged about their boring, reliable infrastructure the way they currently brag about their growth metrics.

Camus wrote that we must imagine Sisyphus happy, eternally rolling his boulder up the hill only to watch it roll back down. But Sisyphus is a figure of futility, punished for trying to cheat death. The maintainer is something different. The maintainer rolls the boulder up the hill knowing that the village at the bottom depends on it remaining at some distance. The maintainer builds retaining walls. The maintainer is not punished but purposeful. The boulder remains in play.

There's nobility in maintenance that our innovation-obsessed culture has trained us to overlook. The senior engineer debugging a ten-year-old system at 3 AM isn't a failure who couldn't get a job at a cooler company. They're the reason the sexier company's payment processing actually works. The friend who remembers to check in during hard times isn't less interesting than the friend who makes a party a party. They're the reason there's anyone left to celebrate with.

The universe tends toward disorder. Entropy wins eventually. But the maintainer holds the line for another day, another year, another generation. And it matters.



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Our intuitions about political advertising are poor by Tom Stafford
Saturday December 27th, 2025 at 9:35 AM

Reasonable People
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This is great: The Realities of Political Persuasion with David Broockman, from the always listenable Opinion Science by Andy Luttrell.

Broockman argues that, in the context of campaigning, too much emphasis has been put on message personalisation - identifying particular segments of voters and designing ads which particularly appeal to them - and not enough on empirically testing message effectiveness. You can understand why - for consultants and strategists personalisation seems like the kind of magic which might allow big breakthroughs, and there are a range of ways of categorising people from demographics or psychology which superficially seem promising.

Broockman’s research pours cold water on this idea of personalisation. This fits with what I’ve learnt - when I’ve looked at studies which purport to show that advertising according to personality is more successful, there are either major confounds, or - when you look closely - the personalisation may arguably have an effect, but the size of the effect is not significantly larger than a non-personalised message.

Important context for this is that there are big differences between individual adverts in terms of effectiveness. This means that better and worse adverts could be deployed in terms of persuasive effect - the variance is there, if we can work out how to take advantage of it (and if we did, it wouldn’t threaten our vision of human reasonableness, because microtargeting is not mind control).

The point is that personalisation is, in practice, very very far from being some kind of terrifying ‘manipulation machine’. The difference between different ads is typically far larger than between a personalised and non-personalised version of an ad. I try and show this by reworking the data from this paper into a summary visualisation:

To understand this plot you just need to know that the up-down/vertical axis shows the persuasive effect. The green line, as it changes left to right, shows the difference between individuals in how persuasive they found the ads - a huge difference. The change in the vertical position of the orange triangles shows the differences between different adverts used in the study - a smaller difference, but still much much bigger than the difference due to personalisation (blue dots). The full context is in this post: AI-juiced political microtargeting. The point is that a non-zero effect of personalisation (the highest blue dot is higher than the lowest blue dot) can still be non-important compared to the other sources of variation (the differences due to advert or individual are far larger).

This is from a paper which says in the abstract : “Recent technological advancements, involving generative AI and personality inference from consumed text, can potentially create a highly scalable “manipulation machine” that targets individuals based on their unique vulnerabilities without requiring human input.”

The “highly scalable” part is definitely true, but I question the degree to which this is manipulation, or to which it is worth worrying about given the size of the demonstrated effects.

From the other side of the coin, the implication is that political campaigners should worry far more about being persuasive for everyone than trying to take advantage of minuscule fine-tuning that might be possible for different groups.

In the Opinion Science pod, Broockman goes on explain that despite the large differences between different messages these differences are hard to predict. They aren’t predicted by the categories that political scientists typically use, such as whether the ads are positive or negative in tone.

Further, expert political practitioners are not better at predicting the most persuasive adverts compared to the general public. Not only were the experts not better than the public at predicting which campaigning ads would be most persuasive, they weren’t consistent with each other (which is important because it suggests there isn’t even some kind of shared conventional wisdom which, although wrong, is shared by the experts).

I have a memory of a study done of the 2016 Democratic campaign which shows that the ads predicted to be most persuasive by campaign staffers were least persuasive with the voters who most needed to be swayed. Sadly I can’t find this now, but I did find this very telling article from pre-election 2016: How the Clinton campaign is slaying social media. This gloating piece neatly illustrates the potential mechanism - highly political, young, cosmopolitan and progressive campaign staffers (and journalists) mistake what works for them as what works for the generally less political, less young, less cosmopolitan and less progressive swing voters.

My take-away is that our intuitions in this area are bad.

We’re bad at discounting our own reaction to an ad to work out how it will affect people unlike us (meaning that campaigners probably leave a lot of variation in persuasive effect on the table when deciding which ads to deploy).

We’re drawn to think that microtargeting and personalisation will unlock extra persuasive power (when the evidence is that extant models of personalisation are not strongly effective, and the degree to which they are is probably in line with how normal persuasion works - information containing facts and evidence is persuasive, just as we’d hope).

And we’re constantly tempted to think of persuasion in general, and advertising in particular, as a form of manipulation. This is extremely limiting. It implicitly denies legitimacy to electoral campaigning, which is a core part of democracy, and denigrates the voters who are persuaded.

Link: The Realities of Political Persuasion with David Broockman

Paper: Broockman and colleagues: Political practitioners poorly predict which messages persuade the public.

Related, from me:

  • Language models are persuasive - and that’s a good thing

    Two new studies provide insights into exactly how LLMs persuade, and what that means.

  • The truth about digital propaganda

    Reasonable People #55: Our piece in New Scientist bring evidence to worries about online manipulation

  • AI-juiced political microtargeting: Reasonable People #53 looking carefully at the claims in one study which uses generative AI to customise ads to personality type

  • Propaganda is dangerous, but not because it is persuasive

    Reasonable People #52: I pick at the claim that propaganda “doesn’t work”.

  • How persuasive is AI-generated propaganda? Reasonable People #51: Bullet review of a new paper suggesting LLMs can create highly persuasive text and will supercharge covert propaganda campaigns.

  • Microtargeting is not mind control

    Reasonable People #22 exaggerated beliefs about the effectiveness of microtargeted ads obscure real risks, and real opportunities to foster public trust in politics


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Keep reading for more on fact-checking, AI, and a very cool job opportunities.


In case you missed it

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London calling / Tools for Thought

PODCAST: Gordon Pennycook on Unthinkingness, Conspiracies, and What to Do About Them

From Sean Carroll’s Mindscape, an interview with Pennycook about his work, including on pseudo profound bullshit and using chatbots to debunk conspiracy theories. Something which came out, which I missed from the papers and seems really important, is that people like the experience of being debunked by the chatbot.

And people usually actually like it.

They’re not mad at the AI.

The AI gives them information I think is useful.

And evidence matters more than we thought it was.

Link: Gordon Pennycook on Unthinkingness, Conspiracies, and What to Do About Them

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JOB: Research Scientist at Wikimedia

We’re hiring a Research Scientist strongly committed to the principles of free knowledge, open source, privacy, and collaboration to join the Research team. As a Research Scientist, you will conduct applied research on the integrity of Wikipedia knowledge, its communities and their work, and the Wikipedia model.

Examples of recent research questions you may contribute to include::

How does the platform and its community navigate election times?

What is the role of Wikipedia in the landscape of online disinformation?

What guidance can we provide to researchers studying neutrality on Wikipedia?

Closes: January 15th, full remote with some geographic limitations

Link: https://job-boards.greenhouse.io/wikimedia/jobs/7484474/

….And finally

May be an image of text that says "TWONKS THIS CLUB THISBOOKCLUBIS IS REALLY INTENSE"

END

Comments? Feedback? Takes from 2016 which aged really badly? I am tom@idiolect.org.uk and on Mastodon at @tomstafford@mastodon.online

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Memory is running out, and so are excuses for software bloat by Richard Speed
Tuesday December 23rd, 2025 at 9:43 AM

The Register
1 Comment

Maybe the answer to soaring RAM prices is to use less of it

Opinion  Register readers of a certain age will recall the events of the 1970s, where a shortage of fuel due to various international disagreements resulted in queues, conflicts, and rising costs. One result was a drive toward greater efficiencies. Perhaps it's time to apply those lessons to the current memory shortage.…

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We live in hope
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